SHFE tin prices opened high in the night session and hovered at highs, with downstream enterprises generally showing fear of high prices. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Briefing on November 3, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) opened higher in the night session and fluctuated at highs, closing at 285,000 yuan/mt, up 0.44% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) SERES announced that its NEV sales reached 51,500 units in October 2025, up 42.89% YoY. Among these, SERES car model sales were 48,800 units, up 43.83% YoY. Sales of other models were 2,928 units, down 60.75% YoY. Total sales amounted to 54,400 units, up 25.10% YoY. In terms of cumulative sales, NEVs sold 356,100 units this year, up 0.95% YoY. Cumulative sales of SERES cars were 325,000 units, down 0.58% YoY. (2) The China Association of Publicly Listed Firms released the 2025 Q3 operating performance report for Chinese publicly listed firms. In the first three quarters, out of 19 industry categories, 17 achieved profitability, 9 saw positive revenue growth, 10 experienced positive net profit growth, and 7 had both revenue and net profit growth. The real economy adhered to the direction of intelligence, greenness, and integration, with advanced manufacturing becoming a significant growth driver. Text-to-video models accelerated iteration, AI data storage demand expanded, and the revenue of storage chip industry-listed companies grew by 16.08%, with net profits increasing by 26.44%. Major breakthroughs in all-solid-state battery technology are expected to significantly boost the driving range of NEVs, with the revenue growth rate of related listed companies exceeding 10% and net profit growth surpassing 20%. Global resource trade disruptions increased, with core industries such as superhard materials and rare earths seeing revenue growth of 10.48% and 7.11%, respectively. The effectiveness of "anti-involution" governance became evident, with key industries like PV equipment and cement controlling production and improving quality, leading to reduced losses for multiple listed companies. (3) On October 31, the latest "China Auto Dealer Inventory Warning Index Survey" (VIA) released by the China Automobile Dealers Association showed that the inventory warning index for Chinese auto dealers in October 2025 was 52.6%, up 2.1 percentage points YoY and down 1.9 percentage points MoM. The inventory warning index remained above the 50 mark, indicating an improvement in the auto distribution industry's prosperity.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in major producing areas like Yunnan tightened, with most smelters expected to maintain stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Due to weak demand in consumer electronics and home appliances, orders decreased significantly. Downstream purchases were cautious, with high prices clearly suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although the increase in AI computing power and PV installations drove some tin consumption, the current contribution is still small, unable to offset the decline in traditional sector consumption.

Spot Market: The tin ingot spot market exhibited a "price without volume" characteristic last week, with trading activity relatively sluggish. As tin prices continued to rise and stabilized above 280,000 yuan/mt, downstream enterprises generally developed a fear of high prices, leading to more cautious purchasing behavior. The atmosphere for spot inquiries was weak, with most transactions concentrated among traders, while end-users largely maintained only necessary rigid demand restocking, without engaging in large-scale stockpiling activities. Although suppliers held firm on their offers and even attempted to increase premiums, in actual transactions, spot prices often required a certain discount against the offered prices to facilitate limited deals. This situation of "fear of high spot prices and cautious trading" prevented the overall trading activity in the spot market from significantly increasing alongside the price rise.

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